Nigeria’s Oil Output Exceeds 1.5 Million BPD in January, Says OPEC

Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production Rises, But Challenges Loom for 2025 Goals

According to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria achieved a modest increase in its crude oil production, surpassing 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2025, aligning with the output quota established by the oil consortium. The report indicates that Nigeria’s production averaged 1,539,000 bpd in January, a slight uptick from the 1,485,000 bpd reported for December 2024.

OPEC disclosed that these production figures were obtained through “direct communication” with Nigerian authorities. However, data derived from secondary sources reported a production level of 1,495,000 bpd, which is 29,000 barrels lower than the 1,525,000 bpd estimated from secondary sources for December 2024.

Despite Nigeria’s production increase, OPEC’s overall crude oil output experienced a decline of 118,000 barrels per day in January, averaging 40.62 million barrels per day, based on secondary data.

In its report, OPEC maintained its projections for global oil demand, forecasting an increase of 1.4 million bpd for 2025. The organization emphasized that strong growth in this demand would primarily arise from the transportation sector, alongside robust economic expansion in non-OECD countries. Key factors included rising requirements for transportation fuels—specifically jet fuel and gasoline—as well as significant contributions from the industrial, construction, and agricultural sectors within those non-OECD nations.

OPEC noted, “This year’s growth is anticipated to be fueled by transportation needs, driven by surging demand for air travel and healthy road mobility. Additionally, industrial, construction, and agricultural demands in non-OECD countries are expected to provide further support.” The report highlighted that jet fuel and kerosene would lead oil demand growth, followed closely by gasoline, LPG, diesel, and naphtha.

In light of this, the Nigerian government is determined to ramp up oil production from its current rate of 1.5 million bpd to over 2 million bpd by 2025. Nevertheless, experts warn that achieving this target may prove challenging due to ongoing issues such as oil theft in the Niger Delta and insufficient investment in the sector.

To counter these challenges, the government is exploring options such as offshore drilling and reigniting oil exploration efforts in Ogoniland. However, the potential resumption of drilling in Ogoni has been met with resistance from local groups, who express concerns over inadequate representation in governmental discussions with stakeholders.

Furthermore, the struggle against oil theft in the Niger Delta remains a significant hurdle, with the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited revealing new illegal refineries being discovered on a weekly basis. As Nigeria navigates these complex issues, the path to increased oil production remains fraught with obstacles.