Nigeria Aims to Boost Oil Production by 2.7 Million Barrels Daily by 2027
Nigeria, recognized as Africa’s largest oil producer, has announced an ambitious target to increase its daily output of crude oil and condensate by 2.7 million barrels by the year 2027. This announcement was made by Olu Verheijen, the special adviser on energy, in a statement reported by Bloomberg.
Verheijen highlighted that enhanced security around oil production and transportation sites is crucial for achieving this production boost. She further explained that part of this increase will come from oil condensate, which is a lighter and more volatile hydrocarbon, allowing Nigeria to operate largely within its OPEC+ crude oil production quota of 1.5 million barrels per day. “Since the OPEC quota does not encompass condensate, our target combines both condensate and crude,” she stated during an interview at an energy conference held in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, last week. “Our goal is to showcase the capability of pushing for a higher quota if needed,” she added.
Notably, Nigeria’s oil production has seen a recovery from a low of 1.1 million barrels per day in 2022, as the country seeks to generate more revenue to confront pressing economic issues such as poverty and declining infrastructure. By December 2024, crude oil production had increased to approximately 1.67 million barrels per day, with crude making up about 1.48 million barrels of that total.
In an encouraging development, Nigeria is looking to become a net exporter of petroleum products as Aliko Dangote’s refinery enhances its production capabilities. Verheijen indicated that the elimination of fuel subsidies has reinvigorated the downstream oil sector, making it viable for the first time in decades. She stated, “The removal of the fuel subsidy has also opened doors for increased investment in refineries. This shift has allowed the mainstream downstream sector to become commercially viable for the first time in many years.”
The special adviser also noted that with improved commercial prospects in the downstream sector, investments in refineries are now a realistic opportunity.
In related news, President Bola Tinubu has pledged to elevate Nigeria’s crude oil production from below 1.5 million barrels per day to over 2 million barrels per day by 2025. Nevertheless, some experts have expressed skepticism regarding the feasibility of this target. Petroleum engineer and oil and gas analyst Dr. Bala Zakka remarked in a recent Nairametrics feature that while Nigeria has the potential to increase output, reaching the target set for 2025 appears unlikely due to the persistent issue of oil theft in the Niger Delta and the ongoing withdrawal of International Oil Companies (IOCs) from onshore exploration activities.
As of November 2024, Nigeria’s crude oil production saw a slight decline in October, dropping from 1.54 million barrels per day to 1.53 million barrels per day.
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