A report by an African-focused consulting firm, Nextier has tipped Peter Obi of the Labour Party(LP) maintaining a lead on voter preference ahead of Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Ahmed Bola Tinubu of the All Progressive Congress (APC) in the forthcoming Nigerian 2023 presidential elections this February.
Nextier’s report also predicted a runoff between Mr. Obi and Alhaji Abubakar or between Mr. Obi and Mr. Tinubu. The company said its report was based on a sample size of 3,000 respondents and generated a margin of error of 2 percent at a 95 percent
confidence interval. The survey sample, it said, represented the age and gender demographics in Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
The report further states, “Although Labour Party secured the highest voter preference, it is unlikely to secure an outright first-round victory. None of the presidential candidates met both criteria for victory in the first round: a majority of votes cast and 25 percent in two-thirds of the states. The survey results show that Labour Party can achieve 25 percent of the votes in 23 states. Therefore, the presidential election could head to a runoff between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu.”
Despite running on a previously unpopular party, Mr. Obi has ignited a new wave of followership amongst the Nigerian youths with messages that resonate around industrialization and his personal character of shrewdness and accountability. Having previously ruled Anambra state, one of Nigeria’s leading South Eastern states, for 8 years and leaving an impeccable record, it is easier for Nigerians to accept Mr. Obi’s political sermon amidst hardship occasioned by years of misrule, culminating in that led by its present leader, Mohammadu Buhari.
Nextier’s report follows a series of polls, including those by Bloomberg and ANAP foundation, that have favoured Mr. Obi maintaining the lead in various facets of the forthcoming elections. ANAP polls, for example, has maintained a reputation of correctly predicting the outcome of Nigeria’s elections since 2011 till date.
See full Nextier’s report here.